The search for certainty

We all want it and the reality is we can’t always get it. The absolute conviction that forecast events will occur, that something is the case or that predicted outcomes will be reached.

Certainty is a component of our everyday lives.  We encounter certainty with contracts, wedding rings, solving crimes beyond reasonable doubt, cause analysis, financial speculation, “googling” and much more. Remember the days of getting public transport and ‘winging it’. Now I check the real time ETA every few minutes! Or those days when we said we would meet a friend at midday – and we met them then and there, no multiple text influx at 30 second intervals.

Society has become obsessed with rationalisation and the ability to predict and control outcomes. What happens when we face uncertainty? Society is in disarray… confusion and frustration prevail.

Question mark

Why don’t we know the answer?

In the case of flight MH370, uncertainty threw even the most powerful and resourced nations into a tail spin with over 26 countries committing to the biggest search and rescue operation over the past century.  The conversations I  read and heard appeared to centre around uncertainty and the frustration of ‘not knowing’.  WHERE is the plane? WHY can’t we find out? WHY can’t technology give us the answer? I think we need to look at the statistics in perspective.  There are approximately 18 million flights p.a and this is the only flight that has vanished in modern aviation history (~1903) – we are all familiar with a margin of error.

When a new disease is discovered and treatment is uncertain, again we have citizens begging medical practitioners for answers.  WHY don’t you know what caused this? WHY don’t you know how to cure it?

Recently scientists discovered a new galaxy.  A whole new planetary system that we had no clue about before….WHY did we not know about this earlier?

Uncertainty is deemed unacceptable

Uncertainty is the opposite and equally valid notion of certainty and society ought to embrace it if its actors stand any chance of progress. A few examples of events that have had major impacts on society that weren’t able to be ‘controlled’.

  • Global Financial Crisis and other economic disasters
  • Natural disasters
  • Disease
  • Unforeseen tragedies
  • Unsolved crimes

Adapt and embrace

I believe the only exception to the rule (and there is always one!) is the determination by police to solve a crime beyond reasonable doubt for years after the crime has occurred to ensure justice is served.  For example, the case of Daniel Morcombe, a ten year old boy who disappeared over a decade ago whose killer has finally been prosecuted.

It’s no secret that certainty about income, for example, can be necessary to one’s lifestyle.  When you drill down is it really? There is always welfare if you needed to maintain material subsistence, provided you had exhausted all avenues in your quest ‘to earn a quid’.  What if you adapted to a less expensive lifestyle and resorted to a job that perhaps paid less?

I’m personally making a special effort to ‘go with the flow’ and avoid predicting and controlling outcomes on a daily basis.  Something many of you may be familiar with – life ain’t black and white as they say! We need to embrace the grey area.

After all, are we really locked in to anything? We can say with certainty we will execute the deliverables of a contract, be with someone forever or believe it unlikely to contract a particular disease.  But the truth is – we don’t know, and nor should we.

circle-concern-control

 

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